Card Counting

Many of the side bets I analyze on this blog are small-time opportunities that are unlikely to get much action from card counting APs. That is not the case with UR Way Egalite (URE) baccarat side bet or its first cousin, Super Pay Egalite (SPE). The ordinary Tie bet allows the player to wager that the result of the hand will be a tie.

Yet another side bet that can be counted in California card rooms:  the Total Shot Bonus (TSB). Formally, this side bet is for the baccarat variant known as Supreme Baccarat. This variant is simply the commission free version where a Banker winning total of 6 pays 1-to-2.  Like ordinary baccarat, the main game is not vulnerable to card counting.

ZooBac is a collection of four independent baccarat side bets, the Rabbit (see this post), Tiger (see this post), Monkey (see the zero/zero tie in this post) and the Zo

A few days back I received an unexpected email from a game developer who asked me to consider two of his new baccarat side bets, Low Tie Max (LTM) and High Tie Max (HTM). These two are part of a collection of side bets collectively called Lucky Max (LM). I believe the developer's intention was to get some publicity for his wagers by having me post favorable card counting results here.

The Tie bet is among the safest side bets in baccarat. Various approaches have been tried in developing a strategy to defeat the tie (see this post and this post).

Match the Dealer (MD) is a popular side bet offered with six-deck Spanish 21.  I have never seen this wager offered on ordinary blackjack, though it is certainly possible. The wager is similar to the Pair Square side bet, paying for pairs with a premium for suited pairs.

A few days ago I was contacted by an advantage player who asked me to evaluate a new card counting system for Lucky Lucky (LL). I told him I would do the analysis only if he gave me permission to post the results here. He agreed. His e-mail to me was the following:

One of my first outings as a novice blackjack card counter was to Laughlin, Nevada, in the Spring of 1997. I recall seeing a wager on a six-deck shoe game called the Super Sevens (SUP7) side bet. It paid whenever the first card dealt was a seven, with higher payouts for two or three sevens and suited hands. This was my first experience with advantage play against a side bet.

Red Flex Bet (RF) is a side bet for the blackjack variant “Pure 21.5 Blackjack” that is played in California card rooms. This side bet can also work as a side bet for ordinary blackjack, though I am not aware of any blackjack placements. I am also not aware of any placement outside of California card rooms.

Some blackjack side bets are so obviously countable that extraordinary measures must be taken to protect games where they are offered. Ordinary blackjack Insurance is such a wager (see this post). Insurance is simply a side bet paying 2-to-1 that the dealer’s down card is ten-valued.

Back in 2003, when I was still a player, I advocated playing against the Lucky Ladies (LL) bet. Back then, there were a few great opportunities, particularly in Washington State. In early October, 2003, I stumbled on a variation of the LL concept on the tables at the Plaza casino in downtown Las Vegas.

The Upcard Luck (UL) blackjack side bet is a bit wacky to describe. Payouts are based on the dealer's up-card together with the two cards the player is dealt. In this sense, it is similar to both Lucky Lucky and 21 + 3. There would certainly be intellectual property issues if this bet made it big. Right now, though, it has very few placements.

“Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.” – Unknown (not Groucho Marx)

A long long time ago, in a casino far far away, there was a blackjack side bet called “Over/Under 13” (OU13). The player had the opportunity to wager that his two cards would total more than 13 (Over) or would total less than 13 (Under). A total of 13 lost for both wagers. These were even-money wagers, nothing fancy.

“The fourth way differs in that it is not a permanent way. It has no specific forms or institutions and comes and goes controlled by some particular laws of its own." – G.I. Gurdjieff