SCOBE'S ULTIMATE TREND BETTING STRATEGIES
(Marty: “I bet the trends all the time. Sometimes I win and sometimes I lose. Sometimes I bet with the trend and sometimes I bet against the trend. Sometimes I win and sometimes I lose. It’s a never ending pursuit.”)
I am sure most of our readers know what trend betting entails. You look for a recent streak of this, that or the other thing and then you bet with that streak continuing, or you bet against that streak continuing. Trend betting is somewhat similar to betting a coin flip; you bet this (the trend will continue) or that (the trend won’t continue).
For example, if red appears a few times, you bet red figuring it will continue to hit; or you bet black figuring red will end as black is due. That is streak betting; better known as trend betting; better known as the house has its usual edge over you.
CAN YOU GET AN EDGE WITH TREND BETTING STRATEGY?
Right off the bat; you cannot get an edge by trend betting at random games. Each past decision has nothing to do with future decisions. Therefore following trends or going against trends in roulette will not win you money over time.
Random is random and while streaks happen all the time in random games they are not predictable in terms of how to structure your bets. You’d have to be psychic – which also doesn’t work as we saw in Chapter 6.
Just memorize the fact that you can’t predict which trends will happen and when trends will end and save yourself a lot of mental struggle in the future when you encounter a person or a written piece that proclaims the wonders of trend betting. (You’ll also encounter people trying to sell their guaranteed-to-win trend-betting systems. Run from those folks.)
TREND BETTING SCAMMERS
There are individuals floating around the Internet and taking ads in magazines (and for shame even some gambling writers doing this) who fancy themselves gurus that will laud trend betting as a winning solution to the puzzle of randomness. They are wrong. They have usually bought into the “The Gamblers’ Fallacy” or one of the other due or not due systems of play.
Don’t fall into the trend trap by thinking that you can get an edge that way. You can’t. You must keep in mind that with a random game no betting strategy can overcome the built-in house edge. That is a fact carved in stone. Don’t be fooled by the trend betting advocates. They are wrong to tell people that such betting can beat the house. It can’t.
Luck can indeed give players wins but those wins are merely the right bet at the right time and these bets have nothing to do with any system of play. You cannot predict what will happen next or the time after next or the time after that. Trend bettors are legion in the casinos and no casino fears them.
KEY ELEMENTS
- Trend betting gurus and scammers pretend (or lie) that one can get a real edge over the casino by following or going against the trend.
- No roulette player can outsmart randomness and trend bettors are no different.
SCOBE’S ULTIMATE TREND BETTING STRATEGY
Okay, with that warning I am now going to give you Scobe’s Ultimate Trend-Betting System. (Oh, in case you didn’t know, my nickname is Scobe so I named these strategies after me. The heck with humility is what I always say.) You will see three things by using Scobe’s Ultimate Trend Betting Strategy as follows:
1. You will wager far less than a person betting every spin.
2. Your losing expectation will be diminished accordingly.
3. You will get a lot –I mean a lot– of anticipatory pleasure.
These trend-betting systems will be for all of the layout bets. I’ll have them for inside numbers and for outside propositions. They are flexible so you can adapt them to your needs – except do not (as in do not) bet every spin. That’s a no-no.
HELLO RED/BLACK, ODD/EVEN, AND HIGH/LOW
I prefer to make even-money bets. I like the pattern of how I win and (yuck!) how I lose. The house edge is the same on these bets as on every other roulette bet but you get the opportunity to win some and lose some and devastating hits don’t usually occur as they would with the Martingale.
To me even-money bets feels much more like a contest. In addition, if you play in a casino that allows surrender or en prison the house edge is cut in half, a very, very good thing.
Here is the deal on my system of play: You will watch the wheel and when two of the same color hit, you will bet that color. Therefore, if red hits twice in a row then bet red. (If black hits twice in a row bet black.)
Should you win your bet going with the color, then bet with that color again until you lose a bet. Then sit out for two more hits of either color and do the same thing. The two color hit can be either red or black, you are not stuck with one or the other; you just need two hits of whichever one.
OR
You will watch the wheel and if red hits twice in a row, you bet black. If black hits twice in a row, you bet red.
THE ROULETTE COUNTER TREND
If you are betting against a color, then make only one bet against it. If you win, smile; if you lose, wait for another hit before betting again.
So the “counter trend” goes like this:
- Red wins first bet, red wins second bet
- Bet black
- If red hits on third spin (meaning you just lost your bet)then sit out next spin
- If red wins fourth spin
- Bet black
- Continue this exact pattern until you own the casino or have to sell the child you like least
This system will work with both the odd/even and high/low wagers. Just follow the same sequences as with red/black.
LET’S GET REALLY CONSERVATIVE
Do you really want to be a still more conservative bettor? Then wait for three of the same color, or of either high or low, or of either odd or even on the initial sequence. It will really stretch you out in terms of limiting your exposure to the house edge.
I also think your anticipatory feelings will be supercharged as you wait to get into the game. So enjoy!
KEY ELEMENTS
- The technique is simple here: You want to reduce the number of decisions you face and continue to enjoy the anticipation of what is about to come.
- You can play by going with a trend or against the trend. You choose!
MORE OUTSIDE TREND BETTING STRATEGIES
Now, we do have several other outside betting opportunities, the dozens, the columns and combinations of various numbers. Let’s take the column bets as our example as all the other combination bets can be handled the exact same way.
Watch the scoreboard. When a number from a given column appears then bet that column. You will only place one bet; if it wins, enjoy it; if it loses wait one spin to see what the next column will be and bet that column. Essentially you will be betting every other spin on the columns – columns pay 2 to 1.
If you hit a losing streak, do not increase your bet in an attempt to recoup your losses; that way leads to disaster quite often more often than not. I’ll have my money management recommendations in an upcoming chapter.
IT’S GOOD TO LOSE LESS
Using the every-other-spin wagering technique will reduce your expected losses by 50 percent as long as you do not raise your bet or play longer than you normally would.
You can take most of the combination bets and do the same thing – except that some of these combinations will have fewer total numbers in them. In such a case, you will find that you do have more losing streaks but the wins bring in more money. The house edge never changes unless the even-money bets have surrender or en prison.
How you bet those outside propositions merely changes the pattern of how you win or lose but those different patterns do not change the house edge. What does change, however, is the fact that you are betting less, enjoying those anticipatory feelings more, and you can expect fewer losses in the course of your playing career than had you bet every spin.
WHAT IF YOU ARE ALONE AT THE ROULETTE TABLE?
Here is a problem you could face in a land-based casino or especially in an online casino – you are the only player at the table. It could be that all the other tables are full; it could be that there are no other tables available. But you want to play. What do you do now, Lone Ranger?
If you are a table minimum stakes player, then – sadly – you’re stuck. I would wait until someone else joined the game but I never feel compelled to play. If you feel the absolute need to play, then you’d have to bet the way you usually bet, but never raise your bet if you are losing. Also slow down how you place and pace your bets.
Count to twenty before you place the next bet or count to thirty. Don’t get trapped into playing at a fast pace. The casino benefits from a faster pace; the player doesn’t. The house edge doesn’t work if there are no bets in play.
Still, my experience has been that most roulette players are not minimum table stakes players. They might bet the table minimum on a single bet but they will more often than not have some bets on other numbers or propositions as well. (By the way, this is a guess I am making but, of course, I am right.)
BETTING AS THE ONLY PLAYER AT THE ROULETTE TABLE
Now, let us say that you are not a table-minimum player. Then become one for two spins before going into the trend betting. Let us say the minimum bet is 10 units in the example.
Here is how that would work if you are the only player at a table:
- Your normal bet is 100 units
- First bet as table minimum player: 10 units
- Second bet as table minimum player: 10 units
- If conditions for the trend bet develop then go to 100 units and use the trend betting methods
- If conditions do not present themselves then continue betting 10 units until the conditions appear
KEY ELEMENTS
- Betting alone at the table means you either don’t play or you reduce your bet to a minimum to establish trends that you wish to bet your usual amount on.
- If this can’t be done then…well, then you have to exercise discipline and refrain from betting until other payers enter the game or you can delay decisions by just not betting.
- A roulette player is playing (what is called) a negative-expectation game and thus reducing potential losses is a smart approach.
SCOBE’S RADICAL TREND-BETTING TECHNIQUES
Okay, here is a question most casino players have never asked themselves:
You make up your mind to bet black if two blacks appear; and that’s fine. But what if you decide to pick black in your head on one spin and then you pick tails in your head on the second spin, and then you will place a bet on one or the other if you guessed right two times in a row?
This means you made imaginary bets as opposed to actual trends that have really happened at the table. Is a black and a high an actual trend like two blacks would be or two highs would be?
So, answer me this: Is such a method of trend betting the same as waiting for two blacks and then betting black? Or two evens and betting even? I’ll give you a second for reflection; give it some thought. Okay, here we go – one…two…three….
SO WHAT’S THE ANSWER?
The answer: Yes it is!
No matter what bet you place after you imagined this or that has the exact same house edge as a bet you place having seen two blacks or two reds or two highs or two lows or dozens or anything else you can wager in roulette. The game is random; the bet you make after two any things, including imaginary any things, will have the same house edge no matter what your criteria for placing that bet.
You could be wishing for two wins in a row on “black” in order to bet “high” on the spin after those appear. Or you can just wait two spins for no reason other than to save yourself some money. That the dawdling trend betting system – just bet every third spin.
If you understand the math of the game then you understand everything about the game. Too many players don’t realize this absolute truth.
REAL HITS VERSUS IMAGINATION
Still, two imaginary wins probably won’t have the emotional impact as two hits on this or that color or on the other this or that proposition, so go with whatever makes you feel the most anticipation. The key ingredient is to wait two spins! The key feeling is the joy of anticipation.
You are playing for fun then what gives you the most fun without dulling your emotions is what’s best for you. Playing Roulette is as simple as that.
KEY ELEMENTS
- Looked at clearly all strategies, all ideas about how to gamble at a random game such as roulette are met with a real fact: anytime you make a bet the house has an edge.
- You can play any strategy or idea but the non-idea works just the same. You can’t overcome the edge.
- All my betting strategies are clearly used to reduce the exposure to the house edge. That is the best technique that any system against a random game can employ.
Quiz
1. Trend betting is looking for what things to happen at the game?
2. Why can’t trend betting at a random game get the player an edge?
3. What are the three main aspects of Scobe’s Ultimate Trend Betting System?
4. How do you play with the trend in Scobe’s Ultimate Trend Betting System on the
even-money bets of red/black, high/low, odd/even.
5. How to you play the “counter-trend” on these same even-money bets?
6. How do you play the other “outside propositions” in Scobe’s Ultimate Trend Betting System?
7. What two principles can you follow if you are the only one at the roulette table?
8. What are “imaginary bets”?
9. Why are imaginary bets just as good as “real” bets?
10. Why does Scobe’s Ultimate Trend Betting System increase pleasure?
ANSWERS
1. Trend betting is looking for streaks to bet with or against.
2. At a random game of roulette, the house edge is set because the house either wins more decisions (20 to 18 on double-zero games or 19 to 18 on single-zero games) or takes a cut of a player’s winning bets by paying 35 to 1 on both the double-zero and single-zero wheels instead of 37 to 1 and 36 to 1 on double-zero and single-zero games respectively.
3. You will wager far less than a person betting every spin. Your losing expectation will be diminished accordingly. You will get a lot of anticipatory pleasure.
4. You look for two hits of an even-money proposition and then bet with that streak. If he wins he will continue betting with that proposition until he loses a bet and then he will wait out two more hits.
5. A “counter-trend” bettor will look for two hits of the same proposition and then bet against that proposition. If he loses he waits two more decisions. If he wins he waits two more decisions.
6. When a number from a given column appears then bet that column. The player will only place one bet and will be betting every other spin on the columns which pay 2 to 1.
7. The first, and probably the most difficult, is to wait until other players come to the table. However, a player can bet far less than normal to establish a streak or simply count to a given number (such as 30 or higher) and then make a bet.
8. A player can merely place an imaginary bet by watching for one proposition to hit once and then another proposition to hit after that. That is two hits in a row of different propositions.
9. Waiting two spins decreases the number of bets a player makes. It doesn’t matter how he achieves the reduction because the house edge is always the same when he places his bet.
10. The increase in time between wagers will increase anticipatory pleasure.
